Why provoke now?
To think of it, ISIS was bound to rise.
The region had known nothing but turmoil for the last 1,500 years. Help offers
were all about access to the extensive oil reserves of the region. The stage,
it seems, had been set for centuries. The Sunnis of Iraq and Syria are wrongly
led to believe that they are the largest demographic group in that region. They
are taught to feel oppressed by the existing Shia governments. ISIS, for its
part, appears to be attempting to exploit this concern.
By 2008, the Al-Qaida affiliated militias no
longer swarmed the streets. Despite major issues like unemployment, corruption
and as such, the national budget was reasonably promising and the defense was
better than before. There was hope. It was a new atmosphere. It was full of
promise. The tantalizing prospects of creating a stable state seemed within
reach. But the world is never ideal. Prime minister of Iraq, Nouri-al-Maliki,
then started using counterterrorism laws to imprison Sunni dissenters and to
boot them from upper echelons of administration. Public protesters were branded
as terrorists and tortured quite selectively. Men were arrested and shipped to
“secret jails” never to be seen again. The morale among the ranks fell. To a
whole new low.
Simultaneously in Syria, attempts were being
made to overpower President Bashar-al-Assad. The Syrian civil war provided a
great window for the ISIS to gain stand in Syria as protests in the Kurdish
inhabited areas of Syria evolved into armed clashes. The Syrian dictator has
vigorously pursued a divide-and-conquer strategy during the war. He's tried
hard to push the sectarian angle of the civil war, making it into a
life-or-death struggle for his Alawite (Shia) and Christian supporters against
the Sunni majority. ISIS' extremism has helped convince Alawites that defecting
the rebels means the destruction of their homes and communities. Assad has also
used ISIS to divide his other opponents: the moderate Free Syrian Army, other
Islamist groups, and the United States. As ISIS grew at the expense of the
rebels, US had a hard time intervening against Assad. And
ISIS and moderate rebels have begun fighting against one another, further
dividing the war in a way that's beneficial to Assad. So as ISIS gets a
relatively free ride in Syria, Assad gets to weaken his enemies. Both hate each
other but realize the advantage of the standing status quo and are getting
along. They are frenemies.
Incomprehensibly, ISIS succeeded in attracting followers from all over
the world. Organizations like these generally thrive on attention. They are
full tilt divas. ISIS currently has the spotlight on it and doesn’t look like
it would not seize the moment. They appeal to radicalized Islamists who seem to
find a fealty to violence. They appeal to frustrated youth who jump at the
least chance of venting their anger. They appeal to the generally disaffected
youth who want to kill each other. The funny thing is that no reference to executions
or beheadings was found in Islam.
The recent
ISIS mass executions, and increased activity of its members on social media
starting with the video of execution of James Foley, an American journalist,
show that ISIS no longer wishes to stay off radar. They aren’t blind. They search
for opportunities and might possibly look forward to throwing a challenge to
any potential interference (mostly USA). Any remaining doubt about ISIS
remaining off stage was eliminated when ransom for Foley was named at an
astounding $132 million. They are game.
How all this?
Napoleon
once said ‘An army marches on its stomach’ and even ISIS needs to feed and arm
its soldiers. It needs to provide for their families. This is necessary to keep
people’s interest and loyalty. Their predecessor Al-Qaida had its revenue drawn
mainly from foreign investments. ISIS
was too clever. Although they do receive considerable “dough” from donors
abroad--- Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait and other gulf states, controlling or stopping
this source won’t help much.
As any sane
head would, ISIS uses oil resources of the land to generate funds. This however
involves smuggling crude oil out of borders. This led USA to carry out
airstrikes aimed at the oil rigs controlled by ISIS. Did it help? I wouldn’t
say so. It considerably reduces their income. But starving them to desperation
is miles away. ISIS devised a more ingenious way to generate funds. It smuggles, it skims, it extorts, it fences,
it kidnaps, it loots—you name it! ISIS feeds itself off lay people’s plates
through organized crime. So as of now, it is not very far from truth to say US
air strikes, unless aided by strategic and coordinated land raids, helps only
in worsening the lives there further.
Taxation!
One more ingenious way of fund raising. ISIS imposes taxes on its subject populations.
Apart from revenue generation, it helps regularize civil control to a great
extent. Gives them the feeling of properly ruling a land. Gives them the
authority to do so. There have also been reports of ISIS demanding voluntary donations to the state from
its citizens. Voluntary donations whenever a local banks, uses public services,
gets paid, lives.
In a nutshell
The Islamic
State has a plan to build a viable state right now, not some vague borderless
world run by extremist jihadis. This issue is barely religious as it may seem;
it is much like a political tinderbox. ISIS, learnt from the mistakes of its
predecessors. It has been showing great extent of strategic intelligence. It
intends to keep a firm ground in Iraq and Syria. Although scores of Sunnis were
massacred in mindless slaughter the fact that they still rely on ISIS is not
worth ignoring. As a part of politico-military strategy, it's set up community,
child-care, and medical services in some of the Sunni communities it controls
in order to reach out to Sunnis.
Now if we look for the silver lining, with ISIS's brutal legal system, it seems like Sunnis
will eventually tire of the group. They should. If ISIS's Sunni allies turn against it, there is a
chance. But it’s never easy. The government needs to do a better job making its
rule look attractive. ISIS may lose the Sunni population backing it in Iraq. In
Syria though, it's hard to imagine either Assad or moderate anti-Assad rebels
mounting an effective military campaign against ISIS in the near term. Whether
they want to, as discussed, is also debatable. Here, (at least for now) containing
ISIS to small piece of Syria, in itself is a victory. But this plan needs a lot
of effort to be put in, from all countries jointly. ISIS is not invincible.
Katyayani S
BITSMUN Society.
P.S Let us all pray for peace. #Peshawar
Katyayani S
BITSMUN Society.
P.S Let us all pray for peace. #Peshawar
